When I realized that my oldest granddaughter would be 91 years old in 2100, I also realized this project is really a generation skipping one. Hard to imagine what life for her will be like, let along her children.
Certainly the guesses at technological progress will be "almost close" at best, and probably really off, but trying to ascertain the geopolitical environment that far out is perhaps the trickiest part: one or two major wars? Mass migrations? Major plague or disease event? And many Western countries have a major bankruptcy to work through - defaults will happen, but unknown just what form they will end up taking (but probably the lying weaselly inflationary path).
I understand the Japanese have/ had an outlook trying to judge their situation 100 years out, while most of us can't even manage to see 4 to 30 years out with any pretense at accuracy.
But a useful project to explore in any case, so good luck with it. And decent risk analyses should be part of that exercise!! :-)
Nice idea. What is the deadline for submissions? I'd like to participate, but am very busy with writing a thesis. I'd prefer to focus more seriously on it in July instead of scrampbling an article in 1-2 days.
Congratulations on your 82 country global reach.
When I realized that my oldest granddaughter would be 91 years old in 2100, I also realized this project is really a generation skipping one. Hard to imagine what life for her will be like, let along her children.
Certainly the guesses at technological progress will be "almost close" at best, and probably really off, but trying to ascertain the geopolitical environment that far out is perhaps the trickiest part: one or two major wars? Mass migrations? Major plague or disease event? And many Western countries have a major bankruptcy to work through - defaults will happen, but unknown just what form they will end up taking (but probably the lying weaselly inflationary path).
I understand the Japanese have/ had an outlook trying to judge their situation 100 years out, while most of us can't even manage to see 4 to 30 years out with any pretense at accuracy.
But a useful project to explore in any case, so good luck with it. And decent risk analyses should be part of that exercise!! :-)
Nice idea. What is the deadline for submissions? I'd like to participate, but am very busy with writing a thesis. I'd prefer to focus more seriously on it in July instead of scrampbling an article in 1-2 days.